Census Comparison

The third release of 2011 census data, allows us to analyse the age profile of  'the big three'. The results are reflected in the graph below:

Using the equivalent data from the 2001 census, we can analyse the age profile of 'the big three' in 2001, The results are reflected in the graph below:

Comparing the data from the two graphs, the most striking question is why has the 'tipping point' (age under which Catholics make up a majority and over which Protestants make up a majority) increased by 12 years instead of 10?  Why has the tipping point which was age 24 in 2001 increased to age 36 in 2011 rather than age 34?

Looking at each of the big three separately might provide some answers. We can do this by bringing the numbers per age as per the 2001 census forward ten years and comparing the changes with the data in the 2011 census. For example, those aged 40 in the 2001 census will be age 50 in the 2011 census.

The 2001 data of course starts at age 10 as those aged 10 and under in 2011 were not born yet in 2001.

The number of 19 to 28 year old Catholics has decreased. The most logical explanation for this is that a significant number of people of this age group are likely to move abroad for education, travel and work.

The number of 32 to 44 year old Catholics has increased. Again this is probably due to people returning from education, travel and work abroad. There may also be an element of immigration from A6 (and predominately Catholic) countries.

From the age of 62 we start to see the number of Catholics decrease and from the age of 69 this trend accelerates. Obviously this can be attributed to increases in the number of deaths as people get older.

 

The numbers of 18 to 29 year old Protestants has decreased. Again, similar to their Catholic counterparts, many Protestants of this age group are likely to abroad for education, travel and work. However, the Protestant spike at this age group is much higher.

As can be expected, the number of Protestants decreases as more people pass on with old age. This is noticeable from age 56 and accelerates from age 71, similar to Catholics.

However unlike Catholics, the 32 to 44 year old age group has not increased. Possible reasons for this include less Protestants returning after completing their education (we have heard that Protestants are more likely to attend University in Britain and stay on and seek jobs once they have completed their education rather than return to the North) or completing their travels (emigration). There may also be less immigration of Protestants from other countries.

There is not much change among the Others (no religion/none) and this group therefore has no relevance as to why the 'tipping point' has increased by 12 years instead of 10, from age 24 to 36 and not 34. The reason for this appears to lie in the fact that more young Protestants having left and fewer having come/returned have distorted the correlation by 2 years.

Census 2011 - Third Release

The third release of census data provides us with a wealth of data on health, employment and housing, demographics and national identity in the North.

Some of the key points include:

Health

• 11% of middle aged Catholics assessed their general health as 'bad' or 'very bad' compared with 8% of middle aged Protestants.  

Employment

• 9% of Catholics were unemployed at the time of the census as opposed to 6% of Protestants.
• Catholics are less likely to be economically active although the gap has decreased from 4% to 0.5% since the last census.

Housing

• 12% of Catholics live in over-crowed conditions compared with 6% of Protestants.
• The average size of Catholic households is 2.72 persons compared to 2.41 in Protestant households
• Protestants are more likely to live alone

In summary, Catholics in the North are in poorer health, are more likely to be un-employed and live in larger households compared with Protestants.

Demographics

It was interesting to note that in the 2001 census, the 'tipping point' was age 24. At ages 24 and younger Catholics made up the majority of the population whereas at ages older than 24 Protestants made up the majority. This statistic was evident in table S306 of the 2001 census, as reflected in the graph below:

With the third release of the 2011 census, it is now possible to produce an up to date version of the graph:

In ten years the tipping point has increased by 12 years to the age of 36! Remember it is now 2013 so the tipping point will have increased a further 2.4 years to age 38.4!

We already know that since the 2001 census, the Catholic population has increased from 43.8% to 44.1% and the Protestant population has decreased from 53.1 to 48.3. With the third release, we now know the Catholic electorate population (aged 18 and over) is 43.8% (2001: 41.5) and the Protestant electorate population is 51.0 (2010: 56.2%).

52% of the Catholics in the North are under the age of 35 compared with 40% of Protestants. This tells us that under the age of 35, on census day there was 425,040 Catholics (817,385 x 52%) and 350,154 Protestants (875,385 x 40%), a majority of 75,000 Catholics. The split is 55/45.

National identity

• 10% of Catholics identify as British (The Rory McIlroys of this world!)
• 5% of Protestants identify as Irish
• 25% of Catholics identify as Northern Irish
• 15% of Protestants identify as Northern Irish
• Over half of Protestants who identify as British only are over 65 years of age
• 20% of school age Catholics have a good knowledge of Irish
• 6% of Catholics over the age of 75 years old have a good knowledge of Irish

Council Boundaries

The Belfast Telegraph has produced the above map of the new look council boundaries, which were proposed today.

From first impressions would suggest that of the 11 new councils, it would appear 5 will be under Nationalist control (Derry & Strabane, Fermanagh & Omagh, Mid Ulster, Newry Mourne & Down and Belfast) and 5 will be under Unionist control (Causeway Coast & Glens, Mid & East Antrim, and Lisburn & Castlereagh).

Unionists may well have control of Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon initailly but it appears to be a maginal council where the 'Others' may hold the balance of power.

School Census 2012/2013

The School Census 2012/2013 relating to to students of nursery, primary, post primary and special schools in the North has been published. The census data includes a breakdown of the religion of the students. As the correlation between religion and voting patters is very strong, one can assume that by looking at demographic trends in the schools today, we can get an indication of voting trends in the ballot box tomorrow.

The graph below uses the data to show us the trends over the last 11 years among the three main groups 'Catholic', 'Protestant/Other Christian' and 'Other'.

The trend is clear to see. The Catholic percentage of the student population remains steady at 50.9%. The Protestant/Other Christian percentage has declined furter and now stands at 39.6% (down from 39.9%). The 'Other' group has increased 0.3% to 9.5%.

Looking at the graph, initially it appears that the 'Other' group has increased in line with the decrease in the 'Protestant/Other Christian' group. This of course would be to assume that the 'Other' group (which includes Non Christian and Other/No Religion/Not Recorded) is made up entirely of students from Protestant communtiy backgrounds.

As the data on religious breakdown by age from the 2011 census has not yet been released, we must use the data from the 2001 census (for now, I will update on release of 2011 data). In the 2001 census NISRA allocated children and teenagers of the 'Other/No Religion group' into both community backgrounds (religion or religion brought up in) as follows

•For children aged 5-11, those who were declared as 'None/Not Stated': 24.3% to 'Catholic', 40.0% to 'Protestant and other Christian', 0.5% to 'Non-Christian, and 35.2% to 'None'

•For children aged 12-18, those who were declared as 'None/Not Stated': 25.4% to 'Catholic', 46.5% to 'Protestant and other Christian', 0.5% to 'Non-Christian, and 27.6% to 'None'

Using these figues to re-allocate the 'Other/No Religion/Not Recorded' group in the Schools census figures, we get a truer reflection of the community background of students. Students of a Catholic community background have increased to 53.3%. Students of a Protestant community background has decreased to 43.7%.

Leaving aside the 3% 'Others', the split between students of Catholic and Protestant community backgrounds stands at 54.9%/45.1%.

Census 2011 - Second Release

On 11 December the second phase of Census 2011 was published. The results included the breakdown of the 'religion or religion brought up in'. In March 2011 on the date of the census, there were 875,717 Protestants and other Christians (48%), 817,385 Catholics (45%) and 117,761 of Other Religion or No Religion (7%).

The 2001 census showed  there were 895,377 Protestants and other Christians (53%), 737,412 Catholics (44%) and 52,478 of Other Religion or No Religion (3%).

The gap between the two main blocks has decreased by 99,633 from 157,965 to 58,332 in ten years. This represents a reduction of nearly 10,000 per year. If current trends continue parity will be achieved at some point in 2016.

In relation to national identity 40% declared themselves to be British, 25% as Irish, and 21% as Northern Irish. Some Unionists argue that the 21% who declared as Northern Irish have made a political statement rather than stating a geographical fact. This is a comfort blanket. While there is a very strong correlation between religion and voting patterns in elections, we simply do not know how the 'Northern Irish' would vote.

Much has been written about this census from various newspaper articles, blogs and discussion forums. However the piece that struck me the most has come from an unlikely source. I am of the opinion that the Irish Independent is an anti-nationalist/republican newspaper. However it was this very newspaper article which has the cop on to know that the current trouble in greater Belfast is not really about the "fleg". No it is about rejecting democracy and changing demographics, change demonstrated in the 2011 census.


image: http://www.facebook.com/#!/LamhDeargUiNeillAbu

Belfast City Hall

On 4th of December 2012 the Union Jack which has flown over Belfast City Hall every day for more than a century was taken down.

Just over a week before the council vote on 3rd December, the council's strategic policy and resources committee voted 11-9 in favour of removing the flag completely. Nationalists argued that Belfast is a shared space and a neutral environment which should be welcoming for everyone. Symbols such as the British flag they argue, represent only one side of the community. They argued that if the Union Jack was to be flown it should be flown along with the Irish tricolour, otherwise no flag should be flown or an agreed flag should be flown. Unionists would not accept anything less than the Union flag continuing to fly over the City Hall for 365 days a year. As a compromise, The Alliance Party put forward a proposal to fly the flag on 17 designated days per year as recommended by the Equality Commission. And so in the council meeting Nationalists and Alliance voted to bring City Hall into line with Stormont and other government buildings in the North. Unionsits voted against. The motion passed 29 votes to 21.

The wheels were set in motion for this historic council vote in the aftermath of the local government election to Belfast City Council in 2011. When the ballots were counted the results saw Nationalist candidates elected to 24 seats on the council on 48.3% of the vote. Unionists candidates won 21 seats with 36.7% of the vote and The Alliance Party won the remaining 6 seats. It was the first time that Nationalists had won more seats than Unionists in Belfast. The Alliance Party held the balance of power.

 This graph which appears on Nicholas Whyte's excellent Ark website (http://www.ark.ac.uk/) shows the voting patterns since 1973 and shows how rapid demographic change which has occured in Belfast.

Census results - First Release - Phase 2

Phase 2 of the census results were published today. The results are effectively a breakdown of Phase 1 results by Local Government Districts (LGD). While today's publication does not give us a breakdown by community background, we can nonetheless break each LGD into Majority Nationalist (>55% CNR community background), Majority Unionist (>55% PUL communtiy background) and Balanced (both CNR & PUL community background 45%-55%) areas based on the 2001 census results.

Catholic majority areas have increased in population by an average of 9.2%. Protestant majority areas have increased in population by an average of 7.4%. Balanced areas have increased by 5.1%. Of course the LGDs in the tables above rely on the 2001 census which is ten years out of date. It is likely that some LGDs belong in a different group. For example the next batch of census results may show that Lisburn is a balanced LGD and at least one of the LGDs in the balanced areas group will have changed to the Catholic Majority group.

The phase 2 results also give us a breakdown of the population per LGD by age. In Nationalist districts west of the Bann and close to the border, the population is predominantly young.  This is demonstrated in the chart below showing the proportion of 0-15 year olds in each district as a percentage of the overall population.





















In Unionist districts to the east, the population is predominantly old. This is demonstrated in the charts below showing the proportion of 65-84 year olds and over 85 year olds in each district as a percentage of the overall population.

Phase 2 of the 2011 census tells us that population growth in CNR community background areas is greater than in PUL community background areas. It also tell us that the CNR districts have predominantly young populations whereas the PUL districts have predominantly elderly populations. While I am uncomfortable speaking of the passing of elderly people in positive terms, it is only natural that as the older generation die off they will be replaced by children of the younger generation. Interesting times ahead.

Census results - First Release - Phase 1

The first figures from the 2011 census have been relased by NISRA.

I have taken some of the more interesting statistics that have been released and will expand in due course.

"In 2001, a person aged 35 would have been in the older half of the population in Northern Ireland. In 2011 a person would need to have been aged 38 to be in the older half of the population"

We can take from this that the age of 37 represents the median age of the population (half the population is aged under 37 years and half the population is aged over 37 years). This is interesting because the 2001 census showed that the 'tipping point' between the two main religous groups was age 27 (Census table s306a). That is, those people under the age of 27 were majority Catholic and those over the age of 27 were majority Protestant. All things being equal we can assume that the 'tipping point' has increased 10 years to the age of 37, the exact same as the median age. This would mean that parity has been reached between the two main religous groups in the North. However all is not equal. We know that the older half of the populus have a larger Protestant majority than the Catholic majority among the younger half. By how much? We do not know exactly. All will be revealed when Phase 2 & 3 of the census are released later in the year.

What we do know is what the religious breakdown of the 'big three' blocks was in 2001. Table S306 of the 2001 census tells us that Protestants made up 53.1% of the population, Catholics made up 43.8% and Others made up the remaining 3.1%. We aslo know of demographic factors such as a high Catholic birth rate, a Catholic majority in our Schools (53%) and Universities (66%). We know that 51% of applicants and 52% of appointees to the workforce are Catholic. We know that the 2001 census revealed that Protestants make up 66% of the 65 years and older age cohort. This is reflected in the higher death rate in majority Protestant areas.

We are less certain of the other major factor which will effect the full census results. Migration. It is clear that there has been a sharp increase in immigration but what effect this will have on the general population remains to be seen. In terms of Emigration one can assume that as the economy has fallen the numbers of young people moving abroad to work has sharply increased. Again we will have to wait to see what effect this will have on the population but my guess that emigration of the two main communities in the North is similar.

Therefore when Phase 2 & 3 figures are released it is likely that the Catholic and Other percentages will show an increase on the 2001 figure. This would mean that the Protestant figure will decrease.

The reason for the partition of Ireland was to manufacture a Protestant majority in the North. A decrease of 3.1% or more on the 2001 figure will mean that the purpose of the sectarian carve up of Ireland is defunct as the Protestant population will have fallen below 50%.

Table 1 – Census Year Population Estimates by Age (1911 and 2011) Age Group			1911				2011
Number		%			Number			%
0-15	404,400			32%		379,300			21%
16-39	467,500			37%		593,800			33%
40-64	267,700			21%		574,000			32%
65-84	106,900			9%		232,300			13%
85+	4,100			0.3%		31,400			1.7%
Total	1,250,500			100%		1,810,900			100%

(Census 2011)

School's Census

In February every year the School Census relating to students of nursery, primary, post primary and special schools in the North is published. The department of education has publised a spreadsheet of the religious background of students here. The graph below uses the data in the spreadsheet to show us the trends over the last ten years among the three main groups 'Catholic', 'Protestant/Other Christian' and 'Other'.

The trend is clear to see. The Catholic percentage of the student population which has been increasing year on year remains steady at 50.9%. The Protestant/Other Christian percentage has been in decline and now stands at 39.9%.

No doubt some would cling to the fact that the 'Other' group (9.2%) has increased in an equal but opposite direction to that of 'Protestant/Other Christian'. This of course would be to assume that the 'Other' group (which includes Non Christian and Other/No Religion/Not Recorded) is made up entirely of students from Protestant communtiy backgrounds. Logically this is not ture. However according to NISRA Protestants are more likely not to declare their religion.

In the 2001 census NISRA allocated children and teenagers of the 'Other/No Religion group' into both community backgrounds (religion or religion brought up in)as follows

•For children aged 5-11, those who were declared as 'None/Not Stated': 24.3% to 'Catholic', 40.0% to 'Protestant and other Christian', 0.5% to 'Non-Christian, and 35.2% to 'None'

•For children aged 12-18, those who were declared as 'None/Not Stated': 25.4% to 'Catholic', 46.5% to 'Protestant and other Christian', 0.5% to 'Non-Christian, and 27.6% to 'None'

Using these figues to allocate the 'Other/No Religion/Not Recorded' group in the Schools census figures we get a truer reflection of the community background of students. Students of a Catholic community background have increased to 53.0%. Students of a Protestant community background has decreased to 43.5%

Equality Commission 21st Monitoring Report

On 16 December 2011 the Equality Comission published its 21st Monitoring Report. This report gives us a breakdown of the numbers and percentage of Protestants and Catholics in the both the public and private sectors of the workforce in Northern Ireland for the year 2010. Protestants represented 54.1% of the workforce, down by 0.5% in 2009. Catholics in the workforce stood at 45.9%, an increase of 0.5% from the 2009 figure of 45.4%. The Protestant percentage has again declined as the Catholic percentage has increased. This trend has been constant as is represented in the following graph






The reason why this graph is converging is due to the fact that the numbers of Catholic appointees to the workforce in 2010 was 52.0% which is significantly greater than the amount of Catholics in the overall workforce. The numbers of Protestants appointed  to the workforce was 48.0% which is significantly lower than their representation in the entire workforce.

The Equality Commission Report for 2010 also shows us the composition of applicants to join the workforce by community background. In 2009 the Catholic percentage stood at 50.7% and the Protestant percentage was 49.3%.





In 2009, for the first time ever the number of Catholics seeking employment was greater than the number of Protestants (by 10,465). Currently there is a difference of 8.2% between the two blocks, a decrease of 1% point from 2009. If this trend continues we can expect further 'greening' of the workforce in the years ahead and parity reached in 2018. As two thirds of students in NI universities and 53.1% of students in NI schools are from a Catholic/Nationalist background the trend could even accelerate.

Registrar General Annual Report 2010

The 2010 Annual Report of the Register Generals Annual Report for 2010 was published today. It provides a wealth of information relating to the demographic make up of Northern Ireland.

Information provided includes births in 2010, deaths in 2010 and as well as information on marriages, divorces and civil partnerships.

Although the report does not determine the community background of those born and deceased in 2010, Appendix 2 provides details of the breakdown of births and deaths by District Council. We know that of Northern Ireland's 26 District Councils can be divided into 11 majority Catholic/Nationalist Districts, 12 majority Protestant/Unionist Districts and 3 evenly balanced Districts (i.e. no community has a greater representation than 55%).

The table below shows the birth and death rates for each District Council in each of the three groups using the data provided in the report




The average bith rate of the Catholic majoity areas in 2010 is 14.4 (per 1,000 population) which is 11.6% higher than the Protestant birth rate of 12.9. The average birth rate in Northern Ireland as a whole was 14.1

The average death rate in Protestant dominated district councils in 2010 was 8.4 (per 1,000 population) compared to 7.1 in Catholic majority district councils which is a greater figure by 18.3%. The average death rate in Northern Ireland as a whole was 8.0.

It must be noted that the three groups in the table are based on the 2001 census and it is likely that some of District Councils actually belong in a different group. For example Lisburn probably belongs in the balanced group. However the 2011 census results will provide the facts.

These trends are consistent over the last number of years as shown by the tables below.

The Penny Has Dropped!

In an interview with The Times newspapeer reported by RTÉ, the leader of Irish Unionism Peter Robinson has stated that the future of NI as a part of the UK will depend on Catholic votes and that he could be the last Unionist First Minister.

Asked whether he could be Northern Ireland's last unionist first minister, Mr Robinson said: "Yes, but the assumption behind your question is that the Catholic population will not vote for unionist parties."

Of course Catholics do not generally vote for Unionist parties so Mr. Robinson would appear to be clutching at straws. Even if Protestant alienation of Catholics was to discontinue, this would be unlikely to change.

The article implies the reasoning behind Mr Robinsons comments as due to demographic change backed up by interesting statistics

"A 2001 census recorded the Northern Irish population as 53.1% Protestant and 43.8% Catholic, with the 2011 census expected to show a narrowing of the gap.



The Times cited a recent national audit showing that when asked to state their religion, 54% of boys and 55% of girls described themselves as Catholic.


Figures out last month found that 49% of Northern Irish students at the province's universities were Catholics, while 35% were Protestants".

The Unionist leader is clearly resigned to the fact that a Catholic plurality in the North is inevitable in the not too distant future and acknowledges that the very survival of the orange state will be detetermined by the very people that were to be excluded in the "Protestant state for a Protestant people".

For the Leader of Unionism to publicly asknowledge that NI is on the verge a Catholic majority is truely momentous. The penny has dropped.

Student demographics

This week we heard remarkable allegations from Jim Allister and Gregory Campbell that Northern Ireland Protestants were under represented in NI Universities. The reason for this we were told was due to the failure of Universities to target Protestants. These allegations came on the back of figures released which show that just one third of Northern Ireland students are Protestant.

Indeed Allister even published a press release on his TUV website to higlight the issue. Not only did Allister take issue with the fact that there were less Protestant students than Catholics, the tone of the press release also did not seem enamoured by the fact that there were many more students studying in NI from the Republic of Ireland than there was from Great Britain.

Reasons for this "imbalance" have been put attributed to a number of factors including:

• NI Universities failure to target Protestant students
• Protestants are more likely to study in GB than Catholics
• More ROI students than GB students studying in NI
• A "chill factor" for Protestants in NI Universities
• Working class Protestants do not attend University
• Catholic schools achieve higher standards academically

However, an article subsequently published in the Belfast Telegraph appears to disprove these claims and points to changing demographics as the reason why Catholics outnumber Protestants in University.

While claims that Universities target students based on religion rather than solely based on acedemic achievement  and claims of a "chill factor" are no more worthy of response as having to explain why ROI students are more likely to attend college in Ireland in greater numbers than those in Britain, the theory of a "Protestant brain drain" merits consideration.

Data has shown that 45% of Protestants and 41% of Catholics attend universities in GB, figures which "are almost neck in neck". This rubbishes the theory that Protestants are far more likely to study in GB than their Catholic counterparts. 

Population statistics show that 51% of pupils in NI schools are Catholic whereas only 37% are Protestant.

"Statistics from both the Departments of Education and Employment and Learning show that the percentage of Protestant pupils attending university reflects demographics. There are now 43,000 more Catholic pupils in our schools — from nursery to sixth form — than Protestants. Dr Peter Shirlow, an academic from Queen’s University Belfast, said the percentage of Catholics and Protestants attending our universities reflected “the share of what the population is”.

Registrar General Annual Report 2009

The Register Generals Annual Report for 2009 was published on 30 November 20009. It provides a wealth of information relating to the demographic make up of Northern Ireland

Information provided includes births in 2009, deaths in 2009 and as well as information on marriages, divorces and civil partnerships.

Although the report does not determine the community background of those born and deceased in 2009, appendix 2 provides details of the breakdown of births and deaths by District Council. Looking at the 2001 census, we see that Northern Ireland's 26 District Councils can be divided into three groups: majority Catholic/Nationalist, majority Protestant/Unionist and those that are evenly balanced (i.e. no community has a greater representation than 55%). Combining these two sets of figures produces the table below. As the figures used for births and deaths are related to 2009 and the figures for religous breakdown in district councils are related to 2001 the results are likely to be slightly distorted but no significantly so.





The average bith rate of the Catholic majoity areas in 2009 is 14.3 (per 1,000 population) which is 13.5% higher than the Protestant birth rate of 12.6. The average birth rate in Northern Ireland as a whole was 13.9

The average death rate in Protestant dominated district councils in 2009 was 8.1 (per 1,000 population) compared to 7.2 in Catholic majority district councils which is a greater figure by 11.1%. The average death rate in Northern Ireland as a whole was 8.1

A higher Nationalist birth rate and a higher Unionist death rate is not encouraging for those that oppose a United Ireland. The problem is compounded due to the fact that the numbers of Nationalists in the 'child-bearing cohort' (those aged between 20 and 39) is higher than the Nationalist population as a whole and the fact that Protestants account for approx two thirds of deaths each year.


These trends are consistent over the last number of years. The 2011 census will show the effects of these trends.

[graph]

Equality Commission Monitoring Report for 2009

On 7 December 2010 the Equality Comission published its 20th Monitoring Report. This report gives us a breakdown of the numbers and percentage of Protestants and Catholics in the both the public and private sectors of the workforce. In 2009 Protestants represented 54.6% of the workforce. Catholics in the workforce stood at 45.4%. The Protestant percentage has again declined as the Catholic percentage has increased. This trend has been constant as is represented in the following graph






The reason why this graph is converging is due to the fact that the numbers of Catholics entering the workforce is significantly greater than the amount of Catholics in the overall workforce and the numbers of Protestants entering the workforce is significantly lower than their representation in the entire workforce.

The Equality Commission Report for 2009 also shows us the composition of applications to join the workforce by community background. In 2009 the Catholic percentage stood at 51.0% and the Protestant percentage was 49.0%.





For the first time ever the number of Catholics seeking employment is greater than the number of Protestants (by 10,465). As current trends continue expect further 'greening' of the workforce in the years ahead and a majority Catholic/Nationalist workforce around 2015.

Registrar General's Quaterly Report (2010 Q3)

On 22 December the Register General's Quaterly report was released for 2010 Q3. The birth and death rate per district council area are released in this report. Of the 26 councils 11 are majority Catholic areas and 10 are majority Protestant areas as per the 2001 census. Taking the average birth and death rates of both the Unionist majority councils and the Nationalist majority councils gives us the following table for Q3.

	Unionist majority councils	Nationalist majority councils	Councils with no clear majority
Birth rate	12.6	14.5	15.9
Death rate	8.0	6.6	6.8

We see that for Q3 the birth rate in Nationalist majority councils is 14.5 births per 1,000 people. This is significantly higher than the Protestant birthrate of 12.6. Furtermore, the death rate in Unionist majority councils is significantly higher than that of Catholics. The latest quaterly report does not tell us much we did not already know, it merely confirms that these trends are coninuing.

Census 2011

Sunday 27 March 2011 is the date Census 2011 will be conducted. It is not yet known when results will be published but it should be noted that this is the first time that census information can be completed online. Consequently results are expected to be published earlier than in previous censuses. The census which is conducted every ten years will provide "comprehensive demographic statistics for small areas and small population groups, as well as Northern Ireland as a whole. Information from the Census is used extensively across the public, private and voluntary sectors and has many important uses".

However, the reality is many people will be looking at census results for a breakdown of the two main religious blocks and to ascertain whether trends from previous censuses are continuing.

Table S306 of the 2001 census can be summarised in the following table:

	Protestant	Catholic	Other
Population	53.1%	43.8%	3.1%
Electorate	56.2%	41.5%	2.3%

It will be interesting to see the 2011 version of this table.

The evolution of trends will also be of keen interest. This graph taken from the 2001 census shows that the 'tipping point' is the age of 27 i.e. the population above the age of 27 is majority Protestant and the population below the age of 27 is majority Catholic. Will the 2011 equivalent of this table show the 'tipping point' has moved exactly ten years to the right?

This chart shows the growth in the Catholic population based on census results from 1961 to 2001 (the results are based on this table on CAIN). Will the Catholic population reach/surpass the 45% mark and will the Protestant population dip below 50% for the first time once the 2011 census results are published?

The 2009 balance sheet

As written by Horseman (RIP) in prior years, this blog (using a previous ulstersdoomed blog as a template) will examine the changes in the sizes of the two main religious blocks (Protestant and Catholic) during 2009 in order to get some idea of the changes in the relative sizes of the two main political blocks (unionist and nationalist).
Since we do not have any reliable statistics on migration, we are left with only the other components of the 'natural' evolution of the population to look at: births and deaths. In the context of politics, of course, a voter is 'born' at chronological age 18!

Deaths

NISRA published their Press Notice on Deaths in Northern Ireland in 2009 in March, which provides the actual number of deaths for each age band (in Table 3). Combining this with the results of the 2001 Census (Table S306 : Age By Sex And Community Background (Religion Or Religion Brought Up In)), and moving the 2001 cohorts forward to more closely match their actual ages in 2009, it is possible to estimate the religious (and thus political) affiliations of the deceased people, and thereby to estimate the relative losses for each of the main political blocks.

The result is as follows. Of the 14,413 deaths in 2009, around 5,060 are likely to have been Catholic, 9,175 Protestant, and 178 'other' or no religion. From a political perspective, of course, only voters matter, so if we take only those of voting age, around 4,946 were Catholic, 9,074 Protestant, and 161 'other' or no religion. So, in the course of the single year 2009 unionism lost 4,128 more potential votes than nationalism through death.

In the 2007 Assembly elections unionism won 335,888 votes (48.7% of the total), to nationalism's 293,767 (42.6% of the total). The gap between the two main blocks was therefore 42,121 votes. In the 2007 Assembly election the turn-out was only 61.9%, so the 4,128 potential votes would normally represent only 2,556 actual votes (61.9% x 4,128). However, older people have a higher than average turnout rate, and thus the real losses to the two blocks through death is actually higher. There are a number of studies that show that older people are very likely to vote (in the order of 85%), while younger people have turnout rates of barely over 50% . So, out of the loss of 4,128 potential voters due to deaths the actual net loss to unionism may have been 3,303 actual votes, or 7.8% of its 2007 advantage. If the evolution of the electorate was dependent on deaths alone, unionism's lead would be cut to zero within 13 years!

But there is another factor - the new voters that the two main political blocks can expect to gain as voters reach their 18th birthdays.

New voters

This is a fairly easy calculation, as the people who turned 18 in 2009 will largely be those who were 10 in 2001, when the Census recorded their religions (in Table S306 : Age By Sex And Community Background (Religion Or Religion Brought Up In)). Migration may also play a small part, but since 18 year-olds who move (to university, for instance) tend to remain registered at their home address, if they vote at all, it is likely to be in the same place that they lived as children. The religious break-down of 10 year-olds in 2001 was as follows: Catholic – 13,124 (50.1%), Protestant – 11,803 (45.1%), other religion or none – 1,262 (4.8%).

So around 26,189 new voters came of age in 2009. For 1,262 of them no real conclusions can be drawn, but for the vast majority this blog's working hypothesis (reminder: that (constitutional) political preferences in the north of Ireland are very closely related to religious affiliation) tends to indicate a net gain for nationalism of 1,321 potential voters (though remember their low turn-out rate). If we combine these figures with those for deaths, we can calculate a rough balance sheet for 2009, taking the votes in the 2007 Assembly election, adding the new voters and subtracting the deaths. Allowance is made for the different turnout rates of younger and older people. While no data on this has been published specifically for Northern Ireland - a very politicised society - evidence from Britain shows that youthful disaffection is massive. This analysis will take this into account by estimating a conservative turnout rate of 80% for the older voters, and 50% for new voters.

Outcome

The calculations below include the balance sheets for 2007 and 2008 as calculated in previous years:

(1) Nationalism
2007 Assembly election: 293,767 (42.6% of the total)

2007 gains - New voters: 13,352 x 50% = 6,676
2007 losses - Deaths (voting age only): 4,874 x 80% = 3,899

2008 gains - New voters: 12,902 x 50% = 6,451
2008 losses - Deaths (voting age only): 5,321 x 80% = 4,257

2009 gains – New voters: 13,124 x 50% = 6,562
2009 losses – Deaths (voting age only): 4,946 x 80% = 3,957

New total: 301,343

(2) Unionism
2007 Assembly election: 335,888 votes (48.7% of the total)

2007 gains - New voters: 11,941 x 50% = 5,970
2007 losses - Deaths (voting age only): 9,517 x 80% = 7,614

2008 gains - New voters: 11,904 x 50% = 5,952
2008 losses - Deaths (voting age only): 9,388 x 80% = 7,510

2009 gains – New voters: 11,803 x 50% = 5,902
2009 losses – Deaths (voting age only): 9,074 x 80% = 7,259

New total: 331,329

(3) Others or no religion
2007 Assembly election: 60,658 votes (8.8% of the total)

2007 gains - New voters: 1,110 x 50% = 555
2007 losses - Deaths (voting age only): 145 x 80% = 116

2008 gains - New voters: 1,157 x 50% = 579
2008 losses - Deaths (voting age only): 176 x 80% = 141

2009 gains – New voters: 1,262 x 50% = 631
2009 losses – Deaths (voting age only): 161 x 80% = 129

New total: 62,037

At the end of 2009, therefore, we might have expected a voting electorate of 694,709, of whom: 301,343 will vote nationalist (43.4%), 331,329 will vote unionist (47.7%), and 62,037 will vote for other candidates (8.9%).

The gap between nationalism and unionism, 42,121 votes in the 2007 Assembly election, would be reduced to 29,986, representing a reduction in this gap of 12,135. In only three years, therefore, unionism would have lost over 28% of its numerical superiority over nationalism.

2010, of course, allowed us an opportunity to test these assumptions against the results of the Westminster election. Although somewhat distorted by a low turnout (57.6%) which was significantly lower than the 2007 Assembly election (63.5%), it was intrusive to know that the percentages that voted for the three blocks were similar to those calculated above (unionist 50.5%, nationalist 42.0% and others 7.5%) and the gap between the unionist and nationalist totals was 57,102. Although the gap is higher than calculated above this may be attributed to a decrease in nationalist turnout (the average turnout in constituencies won by nationalists) of 9.9% compared to a 3.7% decrease in unionist turnout.

Conclusion

Last year we estimated that unionism had less than 9 years of numerical superiority left. The updating of the statistics to include 2009 shows that this estimate still stands, but since one of those years has now passed, unionism probably only has eight years left before it is equalled or overtaken by nationalism. This is a purely statistical calculation and turn-out rates or 'novelties' (like Alliance winning a seat in East Belfast) may influence the actual outcomes at each election – but in the long run the trend will probably continue, unless one or other block succeeds in attracting votes from its rival politico-ethno-religious group.