School Census 2012/2013

The School Census 2012/2013 relating to to students of nursery, primary, post primary and special schools in the North has been published. The census data includes a breakdown of the religion of the students. As the correlation between religion and voting patters is very strong, one can assume that by looking at demographic trends in the schools today, we can get an indication of voting trends in the ballot box tomorrow.

The graph below uses the data to show us the trends over the last 11 years among the three main groups 'Catholic', 'Protestant/Other Christian' and 'Other'.

The trend is clear to see. The Catholic percentage of the student population remains steady at 50.9%. The Protestant/Other Christian percentage has declined furter and now stands at 39.6% (down from 39.9%). The 'Other' group has increased 0.3% to 9.5%.

Looking at the graph, initially it appears that the 'Other' group has increased in line with the decrease in the 'Protestant/Other Christian' group. This of course would be to assume that the 'Other' group (which includes Non Christian and Other/No Religion/Not Recorded) is made up entirely of students from Protestant communtiy backgrounds.

As the data on religious breakdown by age from the 2011 census has not yet been released, we must use the data from the 2001 census (for now, I will update on release of 2011 data). In the 2001 census NISRA allocated children and teenagers of the 'Other/No Religion group' into both community backgrounds (religion or religion brought up in) as follows

•For children aged 5-11, those who were declared as 'None/Not Stated': 24.3% to 'Catholic', 40.0% to 'Protestant and other Christian', 0.5% to 'Non-Christian, and 35.2% to 'None'

•For children aged 12-18, those who were declared as 'None/Not Stated': 25.4% to 'Catholic', 46.5% to 'Protestant and other Christian', 0.5% to 'Non-Christian, and 27.6% to 'None'

Using these figues to re-allocate the 'Other/No Religion/Not Recorded' group in the Schools census figures, we get a truer reflection of the community background of students. Students of a Catholic community background have increased to 53.3%. Students of a Protestant community background has decreased to 43.7%.

Leaving aside the 3% 'Others', the split between students of Catholic and Protestant community backgrounds stands at 54.9%/45.1%.