Census Comparison

The third release of 2011 census data, allows us to analyse the age profile of  'the big three'. The results are reflected in the graph below:

Using the equivalent data from the 2001 census, we can analyse the age profile of 'the big three' in 2001, The results are reflected in the graph below:

Comparing the data from the two graphs, the most striking question is why has the 'tipping point' (age under which Catholics make up a majority and over which Protestants make up a majority) increased by 12 years instead of 10?  Why has the tipping point which was age 24 in 2001 increased to age 36 in 2011 rather than age 34?

Looking at each of the big three separately might provide some answers. We can do this by bringing the numbers per age as per the 2001 census forward ten years and comparing the changes with the data in the 2011 census. For example, those aged 40 in the 2001 census will be age 50 in the 2011 census.

The 2001 data of course starts at age 10 as those aged 10 and under in 2011 were not born yet in 2001.

The number of 19 to 28 year old Catholics has decreased. The most logical explanation for this is that a significant number of people of this age group are likely to move abroad for education, travel and work.

The number of 32 to 44 year old Catholics has increased. Again this is probably due to people returning from education, travel and work abroad. There may also be an element of immigration from A6 (and predominately Catholic) countries.

From the age of 62 we start to see the number of Catholics decrease and from the age of 69 this trend accelerates. Obviously this can be attributed to increases in the number of deaths as people get older.

 

The numbers of 18 to 29 year old Protestants has decreased. Again, similar to their Catholic counterparts, many Protestants of this age group are likely to abroad for education, travel and work. However, the Protestant spike at this age group is much higher.

As can be expected, the number of Protestants decreases as more people pass on with old age. This is noticeable from age 56 and accelerates from age 71, similar to Catholics.

However unlike Catholics, the 32 to 44 year old age group has not increased. Possible reasons for this include less Protestants returning after completing their education (we have heard that Protestants are more likely to attend University in Britain and stay on and seek jobs once they have completed their education rather than return to the North) or completing their travels (emigration). There may also be less immigration of Protestants from other countries.

There is not much change among the Others (no religion/none) and this group therefore has no relevance as to why the 'tipping point' has increased by 12 years instead of 10, from age 24 to 36 and not 34. The reason for this appears to lie in the fact that more young Protestants having left and fewer having come/returned have distorted the correlation by 2 years.

Census 2011 - Third Release

The third release of census data provides us with a wealth of data on health, employment and housing, demographics and national identity in the North.

Some of the key points include:

Health

• 11% of middle aged Catholics assessed their general health as 'bad' or 'very bad' compared with 8% of middle aged Protestants.  

Employment

• 9% of Catholics were unemployed at the time of the census as opposed to 6% of Protestants.
• Catholics are less likely to be economically active although the gap has decreased from 4% to 0.5% since the last census.

Housing

• 12% of Catholics live in over-crowed conditions compared with 6% of Protestants.
• The average size of Catholic households is 2.72 persons compared to 2.41 in Protestant households
• Protestants are more likely to live alone

In summary, Catholics in the North are in poorer health, are more likely to be un-employed and live in larger households compared with Protestants.

Demographics

It was interesting to note that in the 2001 census, the 'tipping point' was age 24. At ages 24 and younger Catholics made up the majority of the population whereas at ages older than 24 Protestants made up the majority. This statistic was evident in table S306 of the 2001 census, as reflected in the graph below:

With the third release of the 2011 census, it is now possible to produce an up to date version of the graph:

In ten years the tipping point has increased by 12 years to the age of 36! Remember it is now 2013 so the tipping point will have increased a further 2.4 years to age 38.4!

We already know that since the 2001 census, the Catholic population has increased from 43.8% to 44.1% and the Protestant population has decreased from 53.1 to 48.3. With the third release, we now know the Catholic electorate population (aged 18 and over) is 43.8% (2001: 41.5) and the Protestant electorate population is 51.0 (2010: 56.2%).

52% of the Catholics in the North are under the age of 35 compared with 40% of Protestants. This tells us that under the age of 35, on census day there was 425,040 Catholics (817,385 x 52%) and 350,154 Protestants (875,385 x 40%), a majority of 75,000 Catholics. The split is 55/45.

National identity

• 10% of Catholics identify as British (The Rory McIlroys of this world!)
• 5% of Protestants identify as Irish
• 25% of Catholics identify as Northern Irish
• 15% of Protestants identify as Northern Irish
• Over half of Protestants who identify as British only are over 65 years of age
• 20% of school age Catholics have a good knowledge of Irish
• 6% of Catholics over the age of 75 years old have a good knowledge of Irish

Census 2011 - Second Release

On 11 December the second phase of Census 2011 was published. The results included the breakdown of the 'religion or religion brought up in'. In March 2011 on the date of the census, there were 875,717 Protestants and other Christians (48%), 817,385 Catholics (45%) and 117,761 of Other Religion or No Religion (7%).

The 2001 census showed  there were 895,377 Protestants and other Christians (53%), 737,412 Catholics (44%) and 52,478 of Other Religion or No Religion (3%).

The gap between the two main blocks has decreased by 99,633 from 157,965 to 58,332 in ten years. This represents a reduction of nearly 10,000 per year. If current trends continue parity will be achieved at some point in 2016.

In relation to national identity 40% declared themselves to be British, 25% as Irish, and 21% as Northern Irish. Some Unionists argue that the 21% who declared as Northern Irish have made a political statement rather than stating a geographical fact. This is a comfort blanket. While there is a very strong correlation between religion and voting patterns in elections, we simply do not know how the 'Northern Irish' would vote.

Much has been written about this census from various newspaper articles, blogs and discussion forums. However the piece that struck me the most has come from an unlikely source. I am of the opinion that the Irish Independent is an anti-nationalist/republican newspaper. However it was this very newspaper article which has the cop on to know that the current trouble in greater Belfast is not really about the "fleg". No it is about rejecting democracy and changing demographics, change demonstrated in the 2011 census.


image: http://www.facebook.com/#!/LamhDeargUiNeillAbu

Census results - First Release - Phase 2

Phase 2 of the census results were published today. The results are effectively a breakdown of Phase 1 results by Local Government Districts (LGD). While today's publication does not give us a breakdown by community background, we can nonetheless break each LGD into Majority Nationalist (>55% CNR community background), Majority Unionist (>55% PUL communtiy background) and Balanced (both CNR & PUL community background 45%-55%) areas based on the 2001 census results.

Catholic majority areas have increased in population by an average of 9.2%. Protestant majority areas have increased in population by an average of 7.4%. Balanced areas have increased by 5.1%. Of course the LGDs in the tables above rely on the 2001 census which is ten years out of date. It is likely that some LGDs belong in a different group. For example the next batch of census results may show that Lisburn is a balanced LGD and at least one of the LGDs in the balanced areas group will have changed to the Catholic Majority group.

The phase 2 results also give us a breakdown of the population per LGD by age. In Nationalist districts west of the Bann and close to the border, the population is predominantly young.  This is demonstrated in the chart below showing the proportion of 0-15 year olds in each district as a percentage of the overall population.





















In Unionist districts to the east, the population is predominantly old. This is demonstrated in the charts below showing the proportion of 65-84 year olds and over 85 year olds in each district as a percentage of the overall population.

Phase 2 of the 2011 census tells us that population growth in CNR community background areas is greater than in PUL community background areas. It also tell us that the CNR districts have predominantly young populations whereas the PUL districts have predominantly elderly populations. While I am uncomfortable speaking of the passing of elderly people in positive terms, it is only natural that as the older generation die off they will be replaced by children of the younger generation. Interesting times ahead.

Census results - First Release - Phase 1

The first figures from the 2011 census have been relased by NISRA.

I have taken some of the more interesting statistics that have been released and will expand in due course.

"In 2001, a person aged 35 would have been in the older half of the population in Northern Ireland. In 2011 a person would need to have been aged 38 to be in the older half of the population"

We can take from this that the age of 37 represents the median age of the population (half the population is aged under 37 years and half the population is aged over 37 years). This is interesting because the 2001 census showed that the 'tipping point' between the two main religous groups was age 27 (Census table s306a). That is, those people under the age of 27 were majority Catholic and those over the age of 27 were majority Protestant. All things being equal we can assume that the 'tipping point' has increased 10 years to the age of 37, the exact same as the median age. This would mean that parity has been reached between the two main religous groups in the North. However all is not equal. We know that the older half of the populus have a larger Protestant majority than the Catholic majority among the younger half. By how much? We do not know exactly. All will be revealed when Phase 2 & 3 of the census are released later in the year.

What we do know is what the religious breakdown of the 'big three' blocks was in 2001. Table S306 of the 2001 census tells us that Protestants made up 53.1% of the population, Catholics made up 43.8% and Others made up the remaining 3.1%. We aslo know of demographic factors such as a high Catholic birth rate, a Catholic majority in our Schools (53%) and Universities (66%). We know that 51% of applicants and 52% of appointees to the workforce are Catholic. We know that the 2001 census revealed that Protestants make up 66% of the 65 years and older age cohort. This is reflected in the higher death rate in majority Protestant areas.

We are less certain of the other major factor which will effect the full census results. Migration. It is clear that there has been a sharp increase in immigration but what effect this will have on the general population remains to be seen. In terms of Emigration one can assume that as the economy has fallen the numbers of young people moving abroad to work has sharply increased. Again we will have to wait to see what effect this will have on the population but my guess that emigration of the two main communities in the North is similar.

Therefore when Phase 2 & 3 figures are released it is likely that the Catholic and Other percentages will show an increase on the 2001 figure. This would mean that the Protestant figure will decrease.

The reason for the partition of Ireland was to manufacture a Protestant majority in the North. A decrease of 3.1% or more on the 2001 figure will mean that the purpose of the sectarian carve up of Ireland is defunct as the Protestant population will have fallen below 50%.

Table 1 – Census Year Population Estimates by Age (1911 and 2011) Age Group			1911				2011
Number		%			Number			%
0-15	404,400			32%		379,300			21%
16-39	467,500			37%		593,800			33%
40-64	267,700			21%		574,000			32%
65-84	106,900			9%		232,300			13%
85+	4,100			0.3%		31,400			1.7%
Total	1,250,500			100%		1,810,900			100%

(Census 2011)

Census 2011

Sunday 27 March 2011 is the date Census 2011 will be conducted. It is not yet known when results will be published but it should be noted that this is the first time that census information can be completed online. Consequently results are expected to be published earlier than in previous censuses. The census which is conducted every ten years will provide "comprehensive demographic statistics for small areas and small population groups, as well as Northern Ireland as a whole. Information from the Census is used extensively across the public, private and voluntary sectors and has many important uses".

However, the reality is many people will be looking at census results for a breakdown of the two main religious blocks and to ascertain whether trends from previous censuses are continuing.

Table S306 of the 2001 census can be summarised in the following table:

	Protestant	Catholic	Other
Population	53.1%	43.8%	3.1%
Electorate	56.2%	41.5%	2.3%

It will be interesting to see the 2011 version of this table.

The evolution of trends will also be of keen interest. This graph taken from the 2001 census shows that the 'tipping point' is the age of 27 i.e. the population above the age of 27 is majority Protestant and the population below the age of 27 is majority Catholic. Will the 2011 equivalent of this table show the 'tipping point' has moved exactly ten years to the right?

This chart shows the growth in the Catholic population based on census results from 1961 to 2001 (the results are based on this table on CAIN). Will the Catholic population reach/surpass the 45% mark and will the Protestant population dip below 50% for the first time once the 2011 census results are published?