The Gathering Delivers

The Gathering is delivering. Ireland's 'greatest ever tourism initiative' is aimed at mobilising the Irish diaspora and others to return to or visit Ireland during 2013, to be part of a series of local gatherings, events and festivals to celebrate Irish culture, history and genealogy.

According to the Central Statistics Office (CSO):

• Tourism numbers are up 8.1% to 1.77m between March and May this year
• There was an 12.8pc increase in North American tourists over the first five months of the year, with 369,100 visits
• One million American visitors are expected to visit Ireland in 2013, spending around $1bn (€765,000).
• The number of tourists coming to Ireland from the United Kingdom has increased by 5.6% to 726,300 – despite the overall slump in the general British travel market.
• Visits from mainland Europe were up 8.5pc for January to May and by 9.6pc between March and May.
• The highest jump has been witnessed in visitors from France at 26.3pc, the Benelux countries at 11pc, Germany at 6.1pc and the Nordic countries at 6pc.
• Even recession-mired Spain has seen visitors here rise by 5.4pc over the same three-month period.
• The Australian and New Zealand market also grew by an impressive 12.1pc from March to May.

Of course while Dublin, Cork, Galway and Killarney cash in, Belfast, Derry and Newry have seen little or no benefit from the initiative. They could have, were it not for DUP Tourism Minister Arlene Foster refusing to cooperate with the Irish Government in order to promote The Gathering as an All Ireland project and promote Ireland abroad. Instead she insisted on marketing the North as "part of the United Kingdom" distinct from the rest of Ireland.

Most overseas tourists, especially those from North America, come to visit the island as a whole. People come to Ireland for the céad míle fáilte, the scenery, the traditional music, the Irish language, the Guinness and all that is bound up in the Celtic Irish identity promoted abroad. It's cool, it's appealing, it's ancient and it works.

Blinded by a DUP Minister's small-minded parochial attitude and antipathy towards all Ireland co-operation, the North has missed out on the economic benefits from a great tourist initiative.

  

The Marching Season

The Marching Season is underway. There were disturbances in North Belfast last night as the Orange Order's annual 'Tour of the North' parade made its way through the Peter's Hill end of the Nationalist Carrickhill. After several breaches of the Parades Commission determination by numerous bands, a small number of nationalist youths tried to run through the bands as they made their way up Peter's Hill. A confrontation ensued and led to Loyalists attacking Nationalist homes. The events of last night are not uncommon in the North. The blame lies solely with the Orange Order.

The Orange Order proclaims to be a cultural organisation defending religious and civil liberties which celebrates Protestant King William of Orange's victory at the Battle of the Boyne over the Catholic James II in 1690.

In reality the Orange Order is a supremacist, bigoted, anti-Catholic, anti-Irish, sectarian organisation that engage in hate filled, triumphalist, coat-trailing marches through Catholic neighbourhoods each and every summer.

It is an organisation in which Catholics are forbidden from joining. Protestants who are married to Catholics are also banned. Members are prohibited from attending Catholic religious ceremonies, indeed many have been expelled from doing so. The rules basically prevent members mixing with those of a different faith.

With tensions still rife following months of volatile anti-democracy protests against the removal of the Union Jack from Belfast City Hall, a summer of discontent and violence looks on the horizon.

Contentious Orange Order marches need to be banned. Yes, people have the right to march and freedom of assembly, but not when the assembly leads to violence and mayhem on the streets and when doing so is to deny Nationalists and Catholics their basic human rights. In a modern inclusive society contentious Orange Order marches should not be tolerated. A Ku Kluk Klan march through Harlem would not be accepted and neither should an Orange Order march through any Catholic areas.

Council Boundaries

The Belfast Telegraph has produced the above map of the new look council boundaries, which were proposed today.

From first impressions would suggest that of the 11 new councils, it would appear 5 will be under Nationalist control (Derry & Strabane, Fermanagh & Omagh, Mid Ulster, Newry Mourne & Down and Belfast) and 5 will be under Unionist control (Causeway Coast & Glens, Mid & East Antrim, and Lisburn & Castlereagh).

Unionists may well have control of Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon initailly but it appears to be a maginal council where the 'Others' may hold the balance of power.

Joint Sovereignty?

At present a border poll for the reunification of Ireland would fail. A Protestant plurality currently exists. Even with demographic trends continuing, and with Protestants and Catholics reaching parity in numbers in around the year 2016, there will probably still be less than the 50% + 1 support required for a United Ireland. This is because a minority of Catholics would not currently vote for a United Ireland. Unionists who like to gloat about this need to be reminded that Catholic support for the status quo is at best fickle. It is not due to any emotional attachment to Britain. It is because they are of the opinion that they would be better off financially in the UK. Of course I do not agree, and I have made my economic arguments before and will continue to do so. The economic arguments in favour of unification are greater.

Of course as a Nationalist and Republican my desire is for the unification of my country. However, a green paper on how to achieve this or describing what a United Ireland would look like has not been produced. If the Irish people decided they wanted the country reunified in the morning what would happen? What way would the roads be painted? What type of road signs would be used? What would the education system, the health system and other public services look like? What would the tax system look like? How long would the transition from the status quo to a UI take?

And what is the strategy? Wait until there is a Catholic majority in the North? Wait until the Southern economy is booming again and then draw up a green paper, all the while facilitating the British strategy of creating a “Northern Irish shared future” identity? 

That is one option. Another is to push for joint sovereignty. Joint sovereignty could be used as a stepping stone and an interim measure to the ultimate goal of a United Ireland free from British Government control or interference. It is an alternative strategy, a strategy that can bring about transition gradually so that when a United Ireland passes in a referendum, most of the change required has occured. 

At the very least a debate within Nationalism needs to occur on whether this is a strategy worth pursuing. 

A United Ireland - Top 10 Benefits

With Sinn Féin pushing for a date to be set for a border poll in the life time of the next Assembly, it appears to be a good time to look at some of the advantages of a United Ireland. A United Ireland makes sense and here are ten reasons why:

1. Peace
There has been a conflict in Ireland for 800 years. The route cause of this conflict is British policy in Ireland, depriving people of their right to self-determination and self rule. The border divides our people. Division causes conflict. In a United Ireland the route cause of the centuries old conflict would be removed.

Any subsequent Loyalist backlash in the event of a United Ireland would dissipate, as would any further Republican insurgence. The level of public support that would be required for sustained violent campaign, against a democratic decision made by the people of Ireland North and South, by way of a referendum would not exist. The findings of the Independent Monitoring Commission on the strength and capabilities of paramilitaries also make it is difficult to envisage how a rebellion could be sustained in the medium and long term.

2. Ending Partition
Partition has had a devastating effect on Ireland. The new Irish Free State suffered as it was cut off from the industrialised North. Before 1922, £19.1 million of Ireland's £20.9 million of exports came form industries around Belfast. By 1926 only 7% of jobs in the South were in manufacturing, while in the North the figure was 30%.

The border regions were cut off from their natural economic hinterlands and continue to be disadvantaged from a lack of  economic stability as a result of having two economies on such a small island. At different times, business on either the North or South of the border have benefited or gone bust due to fluctuating and changing economic circumstances. Business does not like instability. This is not a sustainable long term economic policy for border areas or the island as a whole. A United Ireland would bring economic stability to create an environment in which business can thrive.

Just as two separate tax, currency and legal systems make no sense, neither does two competing economies on such as small island. Instead of competing against one another on this small island, a United Ireland would allow us to come together to compete against the rest of the world.

3. Economics
Economically a United Ireland makes sense. A United Ireland would bring about the removal of duplication of services on the island. This would lead to much more efficient and effective public services. A United Ireland would also bring about the transfer of fiscal powers from London. Focused and suitable economic policy would result in the creation of tens of thousands of jobs. A United Ireland would also benefit from economies of scale, greater efficiencies and synergies.

It has been argued that the Republic of Ireland could not afford Northern Ireland due to the the fact that Northern Ireland is subsidised by the English tax payer up to the tune of £10bn per annum, or closer to £4.5bn when VAT and Corporation Tax revenues, which are generated in Northern Ireland but declared in London are taken into account. Regardless of the figure, this is a grossly over-simplistic and naive argument. It does not take into account the additional tax revenue that would be generated from fiscal policy suited to the local economy rather than the economy of South East England. Neither does it consider expenditure savings from the removal of duplication of services and other efficiencies and synergies.

Economies of Scale would bring more effective indigenous industries and bigger markets not just in the context of an Irish market of 6.3 million people, but the door would open up to the European market of some 300 million people. Greater economies of scale would also lead to a greater pull in Foreign Investment.

4. Industry
For the agricultural, tourism, energy and other industries a United Ireland makes sense.

Agri-Food:
Ireland's reputation of producing high quality foods is second to none. An Bord Bia reports that Ireland's food and drink exports have reached €9 billion, a record high. Exports to the Asian market have soared since 2010, increasing by 75% (remember the Chinese President Xi Jinping visiting Ireland last year!). It is expected that Irish food and drink exports will exceed €12 billion by 2020. A 32 county approach will surpass this figure and ensure no part of Ireland is left behind. The marketing 'Brand Ireland' has the potential to create thousands of jobs and double exports over the next ten years.

A single cohesive voice will be better placed to ensure a fair price for produce from meat plants and processors, regulate the power of super markets and deliver better deals from CAP reform discussions. Agri-business will also benefit from the free movement of animals across Ireland. A "Fortress Ireland" approach will be better placed to fend off animal diseases such as Foot and Mouth and Blue tongue disease.

Tourism
Ireland is the world's 'favourite holiday destination' and has the world's friendliest people according to Frommer's Guide and Lonely Planet. No surprise then that tourism in the Republic of Ireland is one of the biggest contributors to the economy, with over 6.5 million visitors annually, generating nearly €6 billion in revenue, accounting for about 4% of GNP and employing over 200,000 people.

2013 promises to be a bumper year for Irish tourism. Increased flights and flight routes to and from the vital North American market have coincided with ''The Gathering" festival which has got off to a good start and promises to bring thousands more visitors to these shores and generate an additional €1 billion for the economy. However Arlene Foster and DUP apathy to the tourist initiative means that Northern Ireland will see little or no benefit from the festival.

Is it any wonder then, that tourist numbers in Northern Ireland have fallen and fallen again despite the millions spent on the awful "Our Time Our Place" marketing campaign. Marketing Northern Ireland as "part of the United Kingdom" distinct from the rest of Ireland has not worked and will not work. The annual marching season will not attract visitors. Given the reputation of the Orange Order abroad and association of these marches with violence, potential visitors will avoid this "festival" like the plague.

A United Ireland would see all parts of Ireland, particularly the North reach its undoubted tourist potential. This will happen when the entire island is marketed as a single destination. Most overseas tourists, especially those from North America, come to visit the island as a whole. People come to Ireland for the céad míle fáilte, the scenery, the traditional music, the Irish language, the Guinness and all that is bound up in the Celtic Irish identity promoted abroad. It's cool, it's appealing, it's ancient and it works.

Energy
In the last 12 months as much as one billion barrels of oil have been discovered off the coast of Kerry (South Porcupine Basin), an estimated 1.6 billion barrels have been discovered in the Ballyroe oil field off the coast of Cork and half a billion barrels discovered off the Antrim coast. A gold rush in the south east and past gas field discoveries also provide evidence that Ireland has astounding wealth of natural resources.

Although taxation policy needs to be revised, Ireland's renewable energy also provides a great source of wealth. The recent signing of a memorandum of understanding with the British Government will mean billions of euros worth of renewable energy will be exported to Britain, benefiting the economy by generating additional tax revenue for the exchequer, providing huge savings from reduced imports of oil and gas and the creation "tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of jobs".

A United Ireland would see the creation of an All Ireland energy network which would facilitate further financial and efficiency benefits leading to reduced energy prices. The enormous benefits from Ireland's natural resources would be spread among it's 6.3 million citizens, much more beneficial to people of the North than their share of the proceeds of UK Scottish north sea oil spread among 60 million people.

5. Social
Socially a United Ireland makes sense. A United Ireland would mean that the most vulnerable in our society are protected. It is widely acknowledged that the level of social protection offered by the Irish Government is among the most generous in the developed world. Britain offers no model for social protection, where the ruling Conservative Party look after only the rich. OAPs in the UK receive c£98 per week. In the Republic of Ireland, those people who have worked all their lives and contributed so much benefit to the tune of c€230 per week.

6. Health
An All Ireland health service makes sense. An all Ireland version of the NHS is possible. Shared patient services such as single state of the art children's hospital, a single heart surgery unit and other shared services and units makes sense. Operating two inferior and unviable health systems and services on one small island makes no sense at all.

NI Health Minister Edwin Poots acknowledged "the views of eminent health professionals who believed a North-South model would be best". An All Ireland Health Feasibility Report has concluded that an all Ireland approach would provide "specialist surgical procedures on an island-wide basis, surgery that people at present have to leave Ireland to access".

A United Ireland would allow us to create a health care that provides full equality of access, that is responsive to the diverse health needs of the population as a whole, that is flexible enough to provide the highest quality care appropriate to the needs of each individual and that is free at the point of delivery.

7. Education
An all Ireland education system makes sense. Operating two systems on one small island makes no sense at all. It has led to imposed academic selection misery on children in the North. It has led to a brain drain of Northern Ireland students to Scotland and England, many of whom never return. It has led to Donegal Tuesday! Currently students are not able to choose third level education institutions on the basis of preference and convenience. This is due to the folly of two education systems operating back to back on an Island of six million people

An United Ireland with an education system that focuses on building a sustainable economy would bring financial and efficiency benefits, sharing of resources and expertise and greater ease of contact and mobility between and among institutions, partners and personnel involved in education. It would bring free education to all.

8. Sport
All Ireland sports teams and organisations make sense. Our Rugby teams have won grand slams and triple crowns, our boxers have 'boxed above their weight' with Olympic medal success and our golfers have taken on the world and won.

Football could learn from other sports, it could listen to Best, Gillespie, Jennings, Hamilton, Dougan, Lennon, Best, O'Neill, Giles etc. Together so much more can be achieved than remaining apart. An all-island league would generate more income for clubs and provide more talented players for a re-constituted national team.

9. Politics
Politically a United Ireland makes sense. Currently, part of the island is effectively governed from a city in the south of a neighbouring island with different political, economical and social needs. The Government of this neighbouring island does not have a mandate in Northern Ireland. Neither do any of the parties in Britain whether it be the Tories, Labour or the Liberals have any representation in Northern Ireland, nor do they have any real interest or connection with it.

Irish unity, a unity based on a parliament in Ireland with a strong role for Protestants (representing 20% of the parliament rather than 2% in the UK parliament) holding the balance of power and with strong safeguards for those of British identity makes sense. The people of the south want a United Ireland while the English have no interest in the place.

10. Romance
The Norman invasion from England in 1169 marked the beginning of the British colonisation of Ireland. At various times over the next 800 years Irish men and women resisted British rule and attempted to assert Irish independence.

The war of independence began with the 1916 Easter Rising and ended in 1921 after partition was imposed against the will of the Irish people under threat of "an immediate and terrible war" from Britain.

Partition brought partial independence to Ireland. 26 of Ireland's 32 counties would become free of British rule. The other six counties were left isolated in a sectarian "Protestant State for a Protestant people". The in built manufactured unionist majority treated Catholics as second class citizens. Decades of discrimination, electoral gerrymandering, human rights abuses and sectarian pogroms instanced by a sectarian state led to the Northern Ireland Civil Rights Association emerging in the late 1960s.

The violent reaction to the demands of the civil rights campaigners and the widespread political unrest culminated in the murder by British Paratroopers of 14 unarmed civilians in Derry on Bloody Sunday in 1972.

The period know as "The Troubles" had begun and culminated in the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998 which paves a peaceful route to a United Ireland.

A United Ireland would bring Ireland what it has endeavoured for 800 years. Freedom.

Constitutional Convention

This weekend sees the first working meeting of the Constitutional Convention taking place. There will be discussions on possible amendments to the Constitution including the lowering of the voting age, reducing the presidential term of ofice from seven to five years and holding Presidential elections at the same time as Euorpean elections.

Discussions on extending voting rights in Presidential elections to Irish citizens living abroad and citizens of the six counties will take place at a later date.

Irish citizens who would like to make a submission to allow citizens of all 32 counties to vote in Presidential elections or on other issues can do so here.

All these issues will be discussed at the Convention where a vote will be taken on whether or not to recommend these changes to the Oireachtas. If passed, the Oireachtas will debate on the recommendations . The Government is committed to having this debate within four months and setting a date for a referendum if it agrees with the recommendations.

The Convention itself is made up of of 66 citizens, who were selected by a polling company to be representative, as well as 33 politicians, including four from the Northern Ireland Assembly, and independent chairman Tom Arnold.

Listed as members of the Convention on the Constitution include four MLA's, Martin McGuinness (SF), Alban Maginness (SDLP), Steven Agnew (Green Party NI) and Stewart Dickson (Alliance). Sinn Fein also have TD's Gerry Adams and Mary Lou McDonald listed. Not surprisingly Northern Unionists declined their invitation.

Sinn Fein will be represented this weekend by substitutes Senator David Cullinane, Senator Kathryn Reilly and MLA Cathríona Ruane. And with SDLP and numerous Fianna Fail representatives, Nationalism appears to be well represented.

The goal for Nationalists from this Convention is clear. The recommendations which will be put forward for debate to the Oireachtas before being put to the people in a referendum need to include changes that would allow citizens of all 32 counties to vote in Presidential elections. Lets see if they can deliver.


Edit: Breaking News has reported that "the Constitutional Convention has voted in favour of lowering the voting age, but has rejected reducing the presidential term.

At its meeting in Dublin, 52% of delegates voted in favour of lowering the voting age.
Of these, 48% were in favour of lowering the age to 16 with 39% selecting 17.
A reduction in the Presidential term from seven to five years was opposed by 57%".

Ireland's Renewable Energy

 

 

Today a Memorandum of Understanding has been singed between the Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources Pat Rabbitte and his British counterpart Ed Davy. The agreement paves to way to allow Irish wind farms to export directly to Britain.

 

Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Mr Rabbitte described the memorandum as a "win win" development.

 

This will enable Britain to buy renewable energy from Ireland helping the country to meet mandatory EU targets on renewable energy and save British consumers £7bn. As well as providing 10% of it's 2020 renewable energy target, it will mean that the British countryside will not be blighted by wind turbines.

 

So what's in it for Ireland?

 

The Irish Times states "the industry generally has been arguing that a deal will provide the trigger for billions of euro in investment with the potential to create tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of jobs". Every unemployed person costs the state in the region of €20,000 directly, through lost money in income tax and social welfare costs. So if this scheme takes 50,000 off the unemployment register, it could be worth €1bn to the state annually.

 

An EU Directive (2009) requires all EU member states to reach a 20% share of energy from renewable sources by 2020. Currently Ireland's share stands at 18%. This memorandum should comfortably bring Ireland over this target (expected to increase to 40% by 2020) and avoid paying penalties for failing to meet the target.

 

Minister Rabbitte has stated that "Ireland has the potential to generate more wind energy than its population could consume". Basic economics tells us that a surplus in supply leads to a reduction in price. Reduced energy costs of course reduce the cost of doing business.
 

While this is obviously very good news for the Irish economy, there are some areas which have not been clarified under this agreement.

 

How much of this energy will be supplied to homes and business in Ireland? The value of oil imports to Ireland is staggering. In 2010 it was estimated that Ireland imported 166,000 bbl/day, costing a whoppong US$5.3bn. In 2008 this figure was US$7.2bn. Naturally the more green energy that is supplied to Irish homes and businesses, the less reliant they are on oil. The lower the reliance on oil, the greater the savings to the Irish economy. So this begs the question, why are we exporting to Britain when the benefits of keeping green energy at home are so great?

Only the state can own electricity networks, However the private developers will effectively be establsihing their own networks by connecting their windfarms to Britain. How much will be the benefit to the state if they are to transfer ownership of the networks on commercial terms?
 

The most fundamental issue with this agreement is Ireland's share of the revenue (or lack of revenue!) generated from the wind tubines. The export of goods and services is not subject to Vat. Therefore the benefit to the exchequer from the sale of Ireland's natural resources, is dependent on tax revenues generated from profits of the energy firms.
 

However, renewable energy firms are not subject to the same taxation measures as non renewable energy companies. So instead of paying the 25% (before tax write-offs) tax rate applied to the profits a company makes from the sale of Irish oil or gas, and an additional Profit Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) of between 5% and 15%, levied on post-tax profits of licences issued after 2007, these wind energy companies are only liable to the standard corporation tax rate of 12.5%.
 

Not only should all profits made on the expolitation of Ireland's natural resources of renewable energy be taxed at the same level as natural resources of finite energy, the

government then needs to legislate to increase this 25% rate to a level that is similar to our European neighbours and remove the scope for tax write offs, loopholes and accountancy tricks which yields some of the lowest government takes in the world according to a report by Indecon Economic Consultants.

Ireland has astounding wealth in natural resources which provides a means to solve our economic problems. But this would require a fundamental change in policy.

Belfast City Hall

On 4th of December 2012 the Union Jack which has flown over Belfast City Hall every day for more than a century was taken down.

Just over a week before the council vote on 3rd December, the council's strategic policy and resources committee voted 11-9 in favour of removing the flag completely. Nationalists argued that Belfast is a shared space and a neutral environment which should be welcoming for everyone. Symbols such as the British flag they argue, represent only one side of the community. They argued that if the Union Jack was to be flown it should be flown along with the Irish tricolour, otherwise no flag should be flown or an agreed flag should be flown. Unionists would not accept anything less than the Union flag continuing to fly over the City Hall for 365 days a year. As a compromise, The Alliance Party put forward a proposal to fly the flag on 17 designated days per year as recommended by the Equality Commission. And so in the council meeting Nationalists and Alliance voted to bring City Hall into line with Stormont and other government buildings in the North. Unionsits voted against. The motion passed 29 votes to 21.

The wheels were set in motion for this historic council vote in the aftermath of the local government election to Belfast City Council in 2011. When the ballots were counted the results saw Nationalist candidates elected to 24 seats on the council on 48.3% of the vote. Unionists candidates won 21 seats with 36.7% of the vote and The Alliance Party won the remaining 6 seats. It was the first time that Nationalists had won more seats than Unionists in Belfast. The Alliance Party held the balance of power.

 This graph which appears on Nicholas Whyte's excellent Ark website (http://www.ark.ac.uk/) shows the voting patterns since 1973 and shows how rapid demographic change which has occured in Belfast.

Time for a Referendum?

This week there has again been calls for a referendum on a United Ireland. Unionist politicians such as Jeffery Donaldson a.k.a Mystic Meg tell us there is no need to call a referendum as neither the South nor the North will vote in favour. Some Nationalists tell us that we should have a referendum but now is not the right time to have it, as there remains a Unionist majority in Stormont and because of the current economic climate.

In my opinion these Nationalists are correct. Now is not the right time. I do not really think Sinn Féin want a referendum in 2013 or in the short term either. But this is not the point. They know the only way of getting a Green Paper on Irish Unity is to have a referendum called. And when it is called or agreed to, there will be alot of work to do before a date for the referendum can be set. You can't expect people to vote for something in the future if you do not know what you are voting for. How would 26 County voters have voted on the Lisbon Treaty before the terms and conditions of the treaty were set out? If around 30% (as some estimate would be the percentage in favour of a UI if a referendum was held today) were in favour before they even read the treaty, the bookies may have stopped taking bets by the time terms were published.

A series of talks should begin bewteen the Irish government, the British govenment and all parties in order to trash out the Green Paper. An agreement could take several years! So in this light Sinn Fein are correct to call for a referendum now as it needs to be set out what a United Ireland would entail - Federal arrangement?, Fiscal policy?, Health? Education?, Welfare?, Commonwealth membership? etc.

The British government will have an important role to play and they will need to be careful. If they maintain that they have no strategic interest they will agree, should the people vote for reunification, to subsidise the transition period as the North's economy is rebalanced (1 public sector job cut for every 2 private sector job created anyone?). Otherwise disidents can argue that the British purposely positioned the North as a welfare dependent economy in order that the South could not initially afford reunification.

I say initially becasue it is not yet known whether the sum of savings from synergies, removal of duplication of servies etc and the extra revenues from suitable fiscal policies, economies of scale etc that would occur in a UI are greater than the current British subvention to the North of Ireland.

And speaking of the economic argument. To those who suggest that people will not vote for a UI for economic reasons, let me ask them this. Say in a UI, the OAP of the South is to be maintained. How many Unionists (and there are alot of them over the age of 65) will vote No to having their weekly income doubled from £97.65 to €230.30 at todays rates?

Scotland to vote on Independence

Today it was announced that an agreement on a referendum on Scottish Independence has been signed beween the Scottish Government and their English masters. The referendum in 2014 will ask the Scots a straight yes or no question. The exact wording of the ballot is not yet clear.

While this is a matter entirely for the Scottish people there is no doubt that the result of the referendum will have a very significant effect on Ireland. In recent times we have seen Unionist politicians desperately plea for the Scots to vote against independence. Of course this position is not surprising given the fact that a vote in favour of independence would mean a break up of the UK and strike a final blow to the British Empire. It is very difficult to envisage a future Union of England, Wales and a minority in Ireland.

Should Nationalists hope for the Scottish to vote for independence? On one hand the end of an imperialist and opressive Empire built on theft, bloodshed and murder must be welcomed. On the other hand, I am not convinced another English speaking, Independent country with a well educated workforce and fit for purpose fical policy would be good for Ireland. As Enda Kenny stated this week a United Ireland will happen one day regardless of the constitutional position of Scotland.

So what are the chances of Scotland becoming independent? Polls show that support for Scottish independence lies at between 30% and 40%. However, the British Government finds itself in deep recession and struggling with a debt which has long since topped £1 trillion. Deep Tory cuts are inevitable and will be extremely unpopular among ordinary Scots who see the Conservatives as an English party (look at their support in Scotland).

2014 is also the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn, when Scottish forces led by Robert the Bruce defeated English invaders. Expect to see this film multiple times in 2014

Fianna Fáil - "The Republican Party"

The advent of the Celtic Tiger in the early 1990s saw the beginning of what became a genuinely booming economy in Ireland. Exports began to boom, there was huge foreign direct investment, tax revenues soared, unemployment declined, emigration ceased and wealth increased.

Enter Fianna Fáil. The party increased spending dramatically. By 1996 competitiveness had began to erode as a result of high government expenditure. Around this time houses were beginning to increase in price sharply and activity in the consturction industry was on the rise. Tax revenues from stamp duty, capital gains tax, income tax from construction workers and vat from increased consumer spending due to higher levels of disposable income swelled the exchequer's coffers. Fianna Fáil's response was to add fuel to the fire. Tax incentives were given to gready developers who were encouraged to build and develope more and more and more. Regualtion of the banks was non existent. At best FF turned a blind eye on the reckless lending of bankers. It appeared that anyone could qualify for a mortgage whether they could afford it or not.

As the property secor began to boom, inflation augmented and tax revenues rocketed. Although the general economy was continuing to perform outstandingly, the extra revenues gained from the property boom brought about huge budget surpluses. Regardless of the fact that tax revenue from construction activity is not sustainable, upcoming elections loomed and Fianna Fáil had the resources to stay in power.

Giveaway budgets threw money at everthing. Social Welfare payments increased to world record levels, public sector pay increased expotentially, the health budget increased dramatically without proportional increases in efficiency. Grants were given out like confetti. The FF led government were spending recklessly. The purpose was to buy elections and stay in power. It worked.

While all this was happening competitiveness eroded dramatically. The growth of the property sector disguised the fact that the underlying economy had began to falter.

Had Fianna Fáil governed responsibly and taken advice from independent advisors and economists, spending increases would have been kept at modest levels, the property sector would have been cooled before the bubble began to form and the Celtic Tiger would still be roaring today.

Fianna Fáil have damaged this country hugely. However the fundamentals of the Irish economy are strong. Competitiveness has largely been restored. Exports are booming again. All that is missing is strong domestic demand. This will not return until the programme of austerity is complete. This may take another three or four years. Once austerity is finished, economic stimulus will be required. A new Celtic Tiger will be reborn. The state of the world economy will dictate the strenght of the new Tiger's roar. When the conditions are right for another Celtic Tiger people should not forget the reason why first Celtic Tiger was tamed.

Fianna Fáil claim to be "The Republican Party". Have a look at their website:

On one section of the website there is a notice of the party's annual Wolfe Tone Commemoration. On another section browsers are invited to browse by constituency. This map shows a bold line meandering through the North of Ireland. There are 18 constituencies missing inside the line. A Republican party would not partition a map of Ireland. A Republican part would not organise on a partitionist basis. A Republican party would contest elections in all parts of Ireland. Fianna Fáil are not a Republican Party let alone "The Republican Party".

Digital Switchover

On 24 October analogue transmissions will cease. The digital switchover will mean that RTÉ1, RTÉ2 & TG4 will be freely available throughout all of Northern Ireland.

Those living close to the border will receive RTÉ One, RTÉ Two HD, TV3, TG4, 3e, RTÉ News Now, RTÉjr and RTÉ One +1 through Saorview/Freeview approved set top boxes or TV sets. Those living further afield where Freeview HD-capable set top boxes or TV sets are unable to receive southern transmissions will receive RTÉ 1, RTÉ2 & TG4.

It is unfortunate that viewers in locations far from the border will not have channels TV3, 3e, RTÉ News Now, RTÉjr and RTÉ One +1 on Freeview. RTÉ1, RTÉ2 and TG4 will however be available from transmitters on Black Mountain, Carnmoney Hill and Brougher Mountain. Even so some sports programmes and films may be unavailable to them due to rights restrictions.

Despite this the benefits that the digital switchover will bring cannot be underestimated:

"RTÉ should grow from being the state broadcaster of the south to the national broadcaster of Ireland. People north and south will be able to watch the same programmes, follow the same stories, and interact with each other through panel shows and feedback. It will contribute in a small way to removing some remaining barriers. Once digital TV arrives everyone in Ireland will have equal access to the same broadcasters, and the carefully erected partition of the media will be over" (Horseman February 2010).

RTÉ gaining 1.8 million extra viewers will certainly encourage the broadcaster to include much more Northern topics in it's news and current affairs programmes which should strenghten connections and lead to better understanding among all people in Ireland.

The free availability of TG4 in particular will help Nationalists in their Irish language strategy and push for an Irish Language Act to be introduced.

The Penny Has Dropped!

In an interview with The Times newspapeer reported by RTÉ, the leader of Irish Unionism Peter Robinson has stated that the future of NI as a part of the UK will depend on Catholic votes and that he could be the last Unionist First Minister.

Asked whether he could be Northern Ireland's last unionist first minister, Mr Robinson said: "Yes, but the assumption behind your question is that the Catholic population will not vote for unionist parties."

Of course Catholics do not generally vote for Unionist parties so Mr. Robinson would appear to be clutching at straws. Even if Protestant alienation of Catholics was to discontinue, this would be unlikely to change.

The article implies the reasoning behind Mr Robinsons comments as due to demographic change backed up by interesting statistics

"A 2001 census recorded the Northern Irish population as 53.1% Protestant and 43.8% Catholic, with the 2011 census expected to show a narrowing of the gap.



The Times cited a recent national audit showing that when asked to state their religion, 54% of boys and 55% of girls described themselves as Catholic.


Figures out last month found that 49% of Northern Irish students at the province's universities were Catholics, while 35% were Protestants".

The Unionist leader is clearly resigned to the fact that a Catholic plurality in the North is inevitable in the not too distant future and acknowledges that the very survival of the orange state will be detetermined by the very people that were to be excluded in the "Protestant state for a Protestant people".

For the Leader of Unionism to publicly asknowledge that NI is on the verge a Catholic majority is truely momentous. The penny has dropped.

Student demographics

This week we heard remarkable allegations from Jim Allister and Gregory Campbell that Northern Ireland Protestants were under represented in NI Universities. The reason for this we were told was due to the failure of Universities to target Protestants. These allegations came on the back of figures released which show that just one third of Northern Ireland students are Protestant.

Indeed Allister even published a press release on his TUV website to higlight the issue. Not only did Allister take issue with the fact that there were less Protestant students than Catholics, the tone of the press release also did not seem enamoured by the fact that there were many more students studying in NI from the Republic of Ireland than there was from Great Britain.

Reasons for this "imbalance" have been put attributed to a number of factors including:

• NI Universities failure to target Protestant students
• Protestants are more likely to study in GB than Catholics
• More ROI students than GB students studying in NI
• A "chill factor" for Protestants in NI Universities
• Working class Protestants do not attend University
• Catholic schools achieve higher standards academically

However, an article subsequently published in the Belfast Telegraph appears to disprove these claims and points to changing demographics as the reason why Catholics outnumber Protestants in University.

While claims that Universities target students based on religion rather than solely based on acedemic achievement  and claims of a "chill factor" are no more worthy of response as having to explain why ROI students are more likely to attend college in Ireland in greater numbers than those in Britain, the theory of a "Protestant brain drain" merits consideration.

Data has shown that 45% of Protestants and 41% of Catholics attend universities in GB, figures which "are almost neck in neck". This rubbishes the theory that Protestants are far more likely to study in GB than their Catholic counterparts. 

Population statistics show that 51% of pupils in NI schools are Catholic whereas only 37% are Protestant.

"Statistics from both the Departments of Education and Employment and Learning show that the percentage of Protestant pupils attending university reflects demographics. There are now 43,000 more Catholic pupils in our schools — from nursery to sixth form — than Protestants. Dr Peter Shirlow, an academic from Queen’s University Belfast, said the percentage of Catholics and Protestants attending our universities reflected “the share of what the population is”.

Registrar General Annual Report 2009

The Register Generals Annual Report for 2009 was published on 30 November 20009. It provides a wealth of information relating to the demographic make up of Northern Ireland

Information provided includes births in 2009, deaths in 2009 and as well as information on marriages, divorces and civil partnerships.

Although the report does not determine the community background of those born and deceased in 2009, appendix 2 provides details of the breakdown of births and deaths by District Council. Looking at the 2001 census, we see that Northern Ireland's 26 District Councils can be divided into three groups: majority Catholic/Nationalist, majority Protestant/Unionist and those that are evenly balanced (i.e. no community has a greater representation than 55%). Combining these two sets of figures produces the table below. As the figures used for births and deaths are related to 2009 and the figures for religous breakdown in district councils are related to 2001 the results are likely to be slightly distorted but no significantly so.





The average bith rate of the Catholic majoity areas in 2009 is 14.3 (per 1,000 population) which is 13.5% higher than the Protestant birth rate of 12.6. The average birth rate in Northern Ireland as a whole was 13.9

The average death rate in Protestant dominated district councils in 2009 was 8.1 (per 1,000 population) compared to 7.2 in Catholic majority district councils which is a greater figure by 11.1%. The average death rate in Northern Ireland as a whole was 8.1

A higher Nationalist birth rate and a higher Unionist death rate is not encouraging for those that oppose a United Ireland. The problem is compounded due to the fact that the numbers of Nationalists in the 'child-bearing cohort' (those aged between 20 and 39) is higher than the Nationalist population as a whole and the fact that Protestants account for approx two thirds of deaths each year.


These trends are consistent over the last number of years. The 2011 census will show the effects of these trends.

[graph]

Unionists and the Irish Language

This week, the official website of the DUP and the personal websites of party leader Peter Robinson and Lagan Valley MP Jeffery Donaldson were the victim of an amusing pranks by self professed Irish language 'hactivist' 'Hector O'Hackedatdawn'. The prankster ran a fake story on the DUP website as Gaeilge titled “Athbhliain faoi mhaise daoibh go léir”, or ‘Happy new year to you all’ which purported to claim that the party was embracing the Irish language. He also displayed Irish language messages on the sites of Peter Robinson ("Is mise Peadar Robinson, agus tugaim tacoíocht den Acht na Gaeilge" or 'I am Peter Robinson and I support the Irish Language Act') and Jeffery Donaldson.

The prankster claims his motive was to draw attention to the "nonsensical attiude" of the DUP towards the Irish language.

If this gag does nothing else (beside give thousands of people a giggle) it will highlight the bigotry of the DUP towards the Irish language or anything remotely Irish or of Irish culture for that matter.

Earlier this week, minister for the Dept of Regional Development proposed the introduction of bilingual traffic signs in both Irish and Ulster-Scots. Now to most people this would be seen as a good way of promoting minority languages, which the Dept is obliged to do under the European Charter of Regional and Minority languages. However the DUP are not like most people. They can hardly hide their hatred of anything remotely Irish. They could not of course say we are against this because they are anti Irish culture so someother excuse was to be expected. Their excuse is usually to do with the cost of implementation. However under this scheme the costs will be bourne by the promoter of the signs. So what other excuse could the DUP come up with? Read this little gem by DUP Strangford assembly member Michelle McIlveen

"Given the range of problems on Connor Murphy's desk he should be focusing on more important matters rather than a pointless political exercise about bilingual signage".

Of course there is nothing new or unexpected here from Unionists. The Irish Language Act has always been a bone of contention for the DUP and fellow unionists. Despite signing the St Andrews Agreement in 2006 which included that an Irish Language Act would be passed giving the Irish Language equal status in Northern Ireland, the DUP has vetoed every attempt Nationists have made to bring about it's introduction.

So fair play Hector for highlighting this bigotry and as you say yourself

 “My attack is against a political party which refuses to respect my culture and my language.”

Spending cuts

In order to tackle the UKs budget defecit Chancellor George Osborne has set out a four year plan to introduce budget cuts of £4 billion in Northern Ireland. This will significantly reduce the block grant paid by the British government to Northern Ireland which currently stands at between £9 billion to £9.5 billion.
While these cuts will lead to 30,000 public sector job losses and will undoubtably be very painful, it does bring the block grant to a more realistic and sustainable level.

The reason for such a staggering block grant is simply that the public sector in Northern Ireland is much too large (believed to be around 66%).

Every party agrees that the private sector needs to be grown and the public sector reduced accordingly. This dependence on the public sector dissuades potential investors, causing relative poverty in Northern Ireland.

Now that the public sector is to be cut, the next stage in a self sustaining Northern Ireland is to grow the private sector. This is unlikely to happen within the UK. For one thing it would necessitate a reduction in corporation tax to match the Republics 12.5%. No UK government will do this for the North of Ireland. They are more interested in what is right for South East England, and besides could you imagine the reaction in Scotland and Wales if a concession like this was given to Northern Ireland.

Senior economists predict that (at least) a massive 90,000 jobs could be created if the North was allowed to adopt the economic policies of the rest of Ireland.

With the reduction in the block grant through spending cuts and the potential to eliminate it all together with growth in the private sector through All Ireland economic policy, the claim that the Republic of Ireland could not afford Northern Ireland is turned on its head (not withstanding the current economic difficulties south of the border). Also when there is an upturn in the global economy and Irish economies, the economic argument will further no longer wash as a valid excuse as to why there should not be a United Ireland.

Reduction in number of MPs

According to a BBC article, Nigel Dodds has spoke out against the passing of the bill to change the Westminster election voting system and reduce the number of Northern MPs.

The question arises as to why Dodds is critical of the bill. We already know that he will be struggling to hold his North Belfast seat at the next general election if current demographic and electoral trends in that constituency continue.

At present Unionists hold 9 seats, Nationalists hold 8 and Alliance hold 1. As the Alliance party won a seat in East Belfast due to the unpopularity of Peter Robinson, I think it is fair to say that many of the votes for Alliance in the constituency were drawn from Unionist voters.

Lets assume that Unionists hold 10 seats and Nationalists hold 8. Assuming that there are no changes to constituencies or the number of MPs at the next Westminster elections and Gerry Kelly wins North Belfast as expected, we will be left with 9 Unionist seats and 9 Nationalist seats. For the first time ever unionists will not have a majority of seats.

Under the proposals being pushed through by the Tory/Lib-Dem coalition in Britain the number of MPs in the north could be reduced from 18 to 15 seats, a loss of 3 seats. Does Nigel know something the rest of us do not? Is he worried that if the number of MPs are reduced by 3, it might be possible that a situation may arise where Nationalists actually have more MPs than Unionists after the next general election?

UUP leadership

On Wednesday 22nd of September the UUP will have a new leader. The leadership battle is to be a two horse race between a traditionalist Tom Elliot and a moderniser Basil McCrea.

A profile of each candidate is available on the UUP website.

Basil McCrea

Cllr Basil McCrea MLA was elected in 2007 to the Northern Ireland Assembly as an Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) member for Lagan Valley.
He is also a UUP Councillor on Lisburn City Council and a member of the Northern Ireland Policing Board and UUP spokesman on Education.
Basil was educated at Belfast Royal Academy before attaining a Chemical Engineering degree from the University of Birmingham. He later attained a degree in Advanced Computer Technology from the University of Ulster.


Tom Elliot


Political Career:Active member of the Fermanagh Unionist Association for many years
Honorary Secretary of the Fermanagh Unionist Association from 1998
Ulster Unionist Councillor on Fermanagh District Council from 2001, serving on following committees - Development, Planning, Policy & Resources; Environmental Services; Equality Impact.
Election Agent for James Cooper in the 2001 Westminster Elections
Chairman of internal Ulster Unionist ad-hoc Review group for its duration 2000/1
Special Interests:
Agriculture and Regional Development.
Educated Ballinamallard P.S.; Duke of Westminister High School, Ballinamallard & Kesh; Enniskillen College of Agriculture - College Certificate in Agriculture.
Justice
Employment:
Farmer on family run Beef and Dairy farm.
Part-time Ulster Defence Regiment and Royal Irish Regiment for 18 years


Elliot the traditionalist is an Orangeman. He favors of a formal link up with the DUP in a bid to form "unionist unity". He does not favor continuing the link with the British Tories and has spoken of his determination to change the St Andrews agreement so a nationalist cannot be elected as First Minster.

McCrea is strictly opposed to doing any deal with the in any form with the DUP and is also against a continuation of the Tory link.

The bookmakers have not yet published odds but it would appear that Elliot is seen as the favorite.

If Elliot wins and this man is given a platform to speak on behalf of moderate unionism, he will, with his 'traditional unionism' views antagonise and agitate many people. In fact he has already started with anti GAA and anti gay remarks.

Past experience tells us that as unionism attempts to strategise in order to encumber nationalism does not work. We saw this in Fermanagh and South Tyrone this year. Attempts at 'unionist unity' had the opposite effect and led to nationalist motivation. Elliot's appointment will ensure nationalism will again be motivated in upcoming elections. It may also lead to increased unionist apathy and ensure that people who occupy the centre ground or whom are indifferent to the constitutional question, will not look to unionist parties on polling day.

Best of luck Tom.

Fianna Fáil to move North?

Brian Cowen travelled to the Armagh village of Crossmaglen on Thursday to open the latest Fianna Fáil office in the North. This follows the setting up of FF forums in Fermanagh, Down and Armagh. Plans are believed to be in place to set up foums in Antrim, Derry and Tyrone in the coming months. FF already have large cummans in the Norths main universities.

All this poses one question. Will they be contesting the 2011 assembly elections? It is of course too early to say but according to one article they are.

“This is about a bottom-up approach and there is no question of us contesting elections in the immediate future,” said a senior Fianna Fáil source yesterday.

As the assembly elections are fought under the Single-Transferable-Vote system, their entry in to the North would not have the effect of vote splitting. Also it would be interesting to see where they would get votes from. Nationalist voters do not have a centre right pro business party to vote for so one would imagine they will take votes from both SF and the SDLP. In 2008 a former Ulster Unionist Councillor and businessman from south Down joined Fianna Fáil so it will be interesting to see how many votes the party can attract from Unionists IF they contest elections next March.